A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
