A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
